Madje q\u00eb nga viti 2050, n\u00eb mbi tre t\u00eb kat\u00ebrtat e vendeve nuk do t\u00eb lindin mjaftuesh\u00ebm f\u00ebmij\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur popullsin\u00eb e tyre. Nga ana tjet\u00ebr, rritja e popullsis\u00eb do t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetet nga lindjet m\u00eb t\u00eb larta n\u00eb vendet me t\u00eb ardhurat m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebta, p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht n\u00eb Afrik\u00ebn per\u00ebndimore dhe N\u00ebn-Sahariane.<\/p>\n
Raporti i ri tregon se r\u00ebniet m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha t\u00eb lindjeve jan\u00eb n\u00eb vendet e zhvilluara evropiane dhe aziatike, si Serbia, Japonia dhe Koreja e Jugut. Raporti u hartua nga studiuesit e sh\u00ebndetit t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb n\u00eb Universitetin e Uashingtonit dhe u publikua n\u00eb revist\u00ebn Lancet<\/p>\n
Studiuesit i nxor\u00ebn konkluzionet pasi shqyrtuan t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e 204 vendeve. Ata pan\u00eb tendencat nga viti 1950 deri m\u00eb tani p\u00ebr t\u00eb parashikuar t\u00eb ardhmen.<\/p>\n
Krahas teknikave t\u00eb modeleve statistikore, studiuesit shqyrtuan edhe faktor\u00ebt q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndikojn\u00eb tek lindjet, si niveli arsimor i n\u00ebnave, mund\u00ebsia e tyre financiare p\u00ebr t\u00eb patur kujdestar\u00eb p\u00ebr f\u00ebmij\u00ebn, apo qasja tek kontraceptiv\u00ebt.<\/p>\n
Studiuesit i prodhojn\u00eb k\u00ebto lloj raportesh demografike p\u00ebr t\u00eb vler\u00ebsuar k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen p\u00ebr sh\u00ebrbimet si kujdesi sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsor, si dhe burimet natyrore.<\/p>\n
Profesorja Melinda Mills drejton Qendr\u00ebn p\u00ebr Shkencat Demografike n\u00eb Universitetin e Oksfordit. Ajo thot\u00eb se kostoja e lart\u00eb e jetes\u00ebs, kostoja e kujdesit p\u00ebr f\u00ebmij\u00ebt dhe shqet\u00ebsimet p\u00ebr ecurin\u00eb e karrier\u00ebs po i shtyjn\u00eb grat\u00eb n\u00eb shum\u00eb vende t\u00eb mos ken\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Profesorja Mills, e cila nuk ishte pjes\u00eb e k\u00ebtij studimi t\u00eb Universitetit t\u00eb Uashingtonit, thot\u00eb se parashikimet p\u00ebrputhen me ato t\u00eb Organizat\u00ebs Bot\u00ebrore t\u00eb Sh\u00ebndet\u00ebsis\u00eb.<\/p>\n
\u201cE shohim n\u00eb vende si Japonia, ku kemi rritje t\u00eb mosh\u00ebs kur n\u00ebnat lindin f\u00ebmij\u00eb p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00eb 32 vje\u00e7, si n\u00eb Itali. Pra, kjo do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se njer\u00ebzit po b\u00ebjn\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb m\u00eb von\u00eb dhe ka r\u00ebn\u00eb ndjesh\u00ebm numri total i f\u00ebmij\u00ebve. \u00cbsht\u00eb mbiquajtur greva e bebeve. Pra, grat\u00eb thjesht nuk d\u00ebshirojn\u00eb t\u00eb kujdesen p\u00ebr familjen e tyre, p\u00ebr prind\u00ebrit e tyre dhe t\u00eb ken\u00eb edhe nj\u00eb pun\u00eb. K\u00ebto jan\u00eb llojet e arsyeve p\u00ebrse tashm\u00eb kemi nivele m\u00eb t\u00eb larta fertiliteti n\u00eb Afrik\u00ebn N\u00ebn-Sahariane, Indonezi, Pakistan, Bangladesh\u201d, thot\u00eb profesorja Mills.<\/p>\n
Studiuesit e Uashingtonit p\u00ebrdor\u00ebn nivelin e fertilitetit p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrllogaritur popullsin\u00eb. Ata thon\u00eb se globalisht niveli ka r\u00ebn\u00eb nga pes\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb p\u00ebr \u00e7do grua n\u00eb vitin 1950, n\u00eb 2.2 f\u00ebmij\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2021.<\/p>\n
Studiuesit thon\u00eb se r\u00ebnia \u00ebsht\u00eb ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht e theksuar n\u00eb vende si Koreja e Jugut dhe Serbia, ku niveli \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebn 1.1 f\u00ebmij\u00eb p\u00ebr \u00e7do grua.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb vendet e Afrik\u00ebs N\u00ebn-Sahariane niveli gjat\u00eb vitit 2021 vazhdoi t\u00eb ishte kat\u00ebr f\u00ebmij\u00eb p\u00ebr \u00e7do grua, me \u00c7adin q\u00eb ishte vendi me nivelin m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb, me shtat\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb p\u00ebr \u00e7do grua.<\/p>\n
Profesorja Miles thot\u00eb se niveli i lart\u00eb i vdekshm\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb foshnjave mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb faktor i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm n\u00eb k\u00ebto rajone.<\/p>\n
\u201cKa t\u00eb b\u00ebj\u00eb patjet\u00ebr niveli i vdekshm\u00ebris\u00eb dhe mbijetes\u00ebs s\u00eb foshnjave. Njer\u00ebzit b\u00ebjn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb, pasi ka nivel m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb vdekshm\u00ebrie t\u00eb foshnjave. Pra, ky \u00ebsht\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb nj\u00eb faktor. Por mendoj se nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb t\u00eb drejtave p\u00ebr riprodhimin n\u00eb vetvete, por edhe p\u00ebr qasjen tek dija. Qasjen tek kontraceptiv\u00ebt. D\u00ebshira p\u00ebr t\u00eb patur kontroll ndaj fertilitetit t\u00ebnd, ta kesh fuqin\u00eb p\u00ebr ta b\u00ebr\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb, por edhe t\u00eb kesh njohurin\u00eb e duhur\u201d, thot\u00eb ajo.<\/p>\n
Por profesorja Mills paralajm\u00ebron q\u00eb t\u00eb mos shpejtohet p\u00ebr t\u00eb dal\u00eb n\u00eb konkluzione t\u00eb forta bazuar tek ky raport. Ajo v\u00eb n\u00eb dukje se megjith\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb p\u00ebrq\u00ebndrim t\u00eb v\u00ebmendjes tek niveli i lart\u00eb i lindjeve n\u00eb Afrik\u00ebn N\u00ebn-Sahariane, parashikimet e Kombeve t\u00eb Bashkuara p\u00ebr vitin 2050 vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb vler\u00ebsojn\u00eb se popullsia m\u00eb e lart\u00eb do t\u00eb jet\u00eb n\u00eb vende si India, Kina dhe Shtetet e Bashkuara.<\/p>\n
Ajo thot\u00eb se ka shum\u00eb faktor\u00eb q\u00eb nuk i merr parasysh raporti.<\/p>\n
\u201cMendoni p\u00ebr ndryshimin klimatik. Mendoni p\u00ebr luft\u00ebn. Mendoni p\u00ebr pandemin\u00eb. K\u00ebto mund t\u00eb ndikojn\u00eb tek lindshm\u00ebria. Pra demograf\u00ebt p\u00ebrpiqen t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb parashikimet e tyre, por do t\u00eb jen\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb edhe k\u00ebto aspekte. Mendoni p\u00ebr parashikimet ekonomike. Ka gjithnj\u00eb gj\u00ebra t\u00eb papritura\u201d, thot\u00eb ajo.<\/p>\n
Profesorja Mills thot\u00eb se disa vende kan\u00eb filluar tashm\u00eb t\u00eb dalin me zgjidhje teknologjike p\u00ebr plakjen e popullsis\u00eb dhe thot\u00eb se madje kjo ka shtruar ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb me t\u00eb drejt\u00eb edhe pyetjen, a \u00ebsht\u00eb domosdoshm\u00ebrisht nj\u00eb gj\u00eb e keqe tkurrja e popullsis\u00eb?\/VOA<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sipas nj\u00eb studimi t\u00eb ri t\u00eb shkenc\u00ebtar\u00ebve amerikan\u00eb, niveli i lindjeve n\u00eb rang global pritet t\u00eb bjer\u00eb ndjesh\u00ebm deri n\u00eb vitin 2100. Madje q\u00eb nga viti 2050, n\u00eb mbi tre t\u00eb kat\u00ebrtat e vendeve nuk do t\u00eb lindin mjaftuesh\u00ebm f\u00ebmij\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur popullsin\u00eb e tyre. Nga ana tjet\u00ebr, rritja e popullsis\u00eb do t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetet […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":53325,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n